Ashes 2025-26: Alastair Cook believes THIS target will give England victory over Australia on Day 5 of SCG Test

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The Ashes 2025-26 series has reached a gripping climax at the Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG), providing a masterclass in Test match theatre. England, despite already conceding the urn, arrived in Sydney with a point to prove after their dramatic Boxing Day victory in Melbourne. The match has been an oscillating battle of wills: England’s first innings of 384 was overtaken by Australia’s massive 567, but the visitors found a second wind on Day 4. Powered by Jacob Bethell’s resilient 142, England fought back to 302/8 at stumps, carving out a slim but psychologically significant lead of 119 runs. With only two wickets remaining and the pitch beginning to show the characteristic wear of a fifth-day SCG deck, the stage is set for a final-day shootout where momentum could shift with a single wicket.

Following the conclusion of Day 4, former England captain Sir Alastair Cook sat down with TNT Sports to analyze the narrow path to victory for Ben Stokes’ men. Cook dismissed the possibility of a draw, noting that the rapid nature of the game and the deteriorating state of the surface have made a result almost certain. He argued that on a fifth-day pitch, a rarity in modern Test cricket where games often end earlier, even a modest target could prove insurmountable if England strikes early.

“I don’t think a draw is possible as there is too much cricket to go. However, one thing you can say about the 4th innings on a 5th day, which we don’t get very often—normally the pitch in a Test match with 3 or 4 days of cricket is pretty good. We might see this pitch deteriorate a lot more so suddenly 160 or 220, they obviously got 2 wickets left, if they got 6 wickets left they might get 220. So 160 is possible to defend. It is possible if you get early Australian wickets.” Cook said.

Cook’s analysis highlighted that the pressure of a fifth-day chase in Australia is uniquely difficult. He suggested that if England’s tail can wag just enough to push the lead past 150, the outside chance” becomes a very real threat to the Australian batting lineup.

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In the final segment of his analysis, Cook identified the specific wickets England must claim to trigger an Australian collapse. He pinpointed Travis Head as the ultimate prize, noting that his aggressive style is the engine of Australia’s “flying starts.” Without Head to take the game away, Cook believes the English bowlers can induce a sense of panic that has been missing for much of the series.

“England in particular have to get Travis Head out. They get Travis Head out, Australia won’t get the flying start, they can suddenly be 30/3. One or two suddenly explode, you get Steve Smith caught in the gully that he can’t play, then suddenly you can believe. We have seen so many matches in the past actually here in Australia where it is hard to chase the score. England haven’t got the specialist spinner which they would love, but it is an outside chance. They have given themselves an outside chance, so you never know.” Cook concluded.

Cook concluded by acknowledging that while England is disadvantaged by the lack of a frontline spinner to exploit the SCG cracks, the psychological weight of the Ashes means that belief is often more potent than technical advantage. If England can find a way to dismiss Smith and Head cheaply, the SCG might just witness one of the great final-day escapes in Ashes history.

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