AUS vs ENG: Michael Vaughan predicts the scoreline of Ashes 2025-26 and winner of Perth Test

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The world’s oldest and fiercest rivalry, The Ashes, is set to ignite once again as Australia defends the urn against an aggressively confident England side. The five-Test series will run from November 21, 2025, to January 8, 2026, with all matches being hosted in Australia.

The home side will enter the series with a history of dominance in recent years but is currently plagued by a significant pace bowling injury crisis. England, led by Ben Stokes, is focused on securing their first series win in Australia since the successful 2010–11 tour. Former England captain Michael Vaughan has already weighed in with a specific prediction, tipping the visitors to win the opening match in Perth. The captaincy of the Australian side for the opener will be handled by Steve Smith, following an injury sidelining the regular skipper.

Australia, despite entering the series with a strong historical claim, faces a significant injury crisis that has already reshaped their lineup for the crucial first Test in Perth. The home side will be without their regular captain Pat Cummins for the opener, as he manages an injury and has not played competitively since July. The pace attack has been further severely hampered by hamstring injuries to both Sean Abbott and Josh Hazlewood, compounding their opening match selection woes. In response to this crisis, Australia have called up the experienced fast-bowler Michael Neser, whose most recent of two Test appearances was in 2022.

The severity of the injury situation has prompted former England cricketer Michael Vaughan to post a bold prediction on social media. Vaughan stated: ‘As long as B Stokes stays fit I think this series is going to be 2-2 .. England to win in Perth with no Pat or Josh ..” He further qualified his prediction, noting: “.. As long as we have no more Injuries before the first test that’s my final prediction,’ Vaughan posted on X.

Meanwhile, England also received a scare when injury-prone quick Mark Wood walked off the field during a warm-up match recently after bowling just eight overs. Fortunately for the visitors, scans subsequently revealed no serious damage to Wood, and he has been cleared to bowl in the series opener, having not played for England since February.

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Despite the injury setbacks in the bowling department, the Australian team maintains a position of strength, particularly within their batting lineup and recent history of retaining the urn. The home side will defend the urn with a settled core led by Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne, both in rich batting form. This settled core, with Smith stepping up as interim skipper in Cummins’ absence, provides a foundation of reliability and proven Test match success.

The reigning champions have retained the Ashes urn ever since they regained it from England in the 2017/18 series with a dominant 4-0 win at home. They continued to hold on to the urn following the subsequent series in England in 2019, which ended in a 2-2 draw.

Their home dominance was reaffirmed with another crushing 4-0 win against England in the 2021/22 series also held in Australia. Most recently, the 2023 series, which took place in England, resulted in a second successive 2-2 draw, meaning Australia retained the trophy. England, led by Stokes, is keenly aware of this history and is on the hunt for their first Ashes series victory on Australian soil since the successful 2010–11 campaign, needing a decisive victory to reclaim the trophy.

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