IND vs NZ, 1st ODI: Vadodara Weather Forecast, Toss Prediction and Dew Factor

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As the first rays of the 2026 cricketing season dawn, all eyes turn to the cultural capital of Gujarat, Vadodara. The BCA Stadium in Kotambi is set to make history on Sunday, January 11, by hosting its first-ever men’s One Day International. This series opener between India and New Zealand isn’t just a match; it’s a high-stakes encounter where world-class talent meets a brand-new international venue.

With heavyweights like Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli returning to the fold under Shubman Gill’s captaincy, and a resilient New Zealand side led by Michael Bracewell looking to repeat their giant-killing heroics, the atmosphere in Baroda is nothing short of electric.

On Sunday, the city is expected to experience typical winter conditions for Gujarat – bright, sunny, and dry. The maximum temperature will hover around 28°C to 29°C during the afternoon, providing a comfortable environment for the players and the thousands of fans expected to pack the Kotambi stands.

As the sun sets over the BCA Stadium, the mercury is projected to dip significantly, reaching a minimum of 15°C to 16°C. While there is absolutely zero probability of rain, the humidity levels are expected to rise from 40% in the afternoon to nearly 65% late in the evening. For the players, this means a pleasant day in the field, but for the strategists, the dropping temperatures signal the arrival of a familiar foe: the evening moisture.

In day-night ODIs across the Indian subcontinent, dew often plays a more decisive role than the opposition’s bowling attack. At the Kotambi International Stadium, which is situated on the outskirts of the city amidst open fields, the impact of dew is expected to be substantial. As the temperature drops after 6:30 PM, a thick layer of moisture will likely settle on the outfield, making the ball greasy and difficult to grip for the spinners and the seamers alike.

For the Indian spin duo of Kuldeep Yadav and Ravindra Jadeja, the second innings could become a battle of control. A wet ball rarely turns as effectively and often skids onto the bat, significantly neutralizing any assistance the pitch might offer. Consequently, the team bowling second will need to be equipped with plenty of saw-dust and towels to manage the “invisible twelfth man” that often turns a competitive total into an easy chase.

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Given the significant dew forecast, the toss prediction for the 1st ODI heavily favors the side winning the coin flip to bowl first. Captain Gill and his counterpart Michael Bracewell are well aware that defending a total becomes a nightmare once the ball becomes like a bar of soap.

Statistically, at newer venues like the BCA Stadium—where the pitch is fresh and the bounce is true—chasing provides a tactical advantage. By bowling first, a team can exploit any early morning moisture or zip available for pacers. More importantly, it ensures their own batters have the best of the conditions under the lights, where the ball will likely come onto the bat much better due to the skidding effect of the dew.

On this surface, a score of 280-290 is no longer considered safe. To truly challenge a chasing team under the lights, the side batting first should aim for a minimum target of 315-325. India’s pace attack should prioritize early wickets with the new ball while it swings, whereas New Zealand must use cutters and variations to stifle the middle-order scoring rate. For the chasing side, the strategy is to keep wickets in hand to capitalize on the skidding ball and wet outfield during the final 15 overs of the match.

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