T20 World Cup 2026: Pakistan’s semi-final qualification scenario after England’s win over New Zealand

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In a dramatic turn of events at the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026, England’s four-wicket victory over New Zealand in Colombo on Friday has thrown the Group 2 qualification race wide open, giving Pakistan a lifeline to keep their semi-final hopes alive. The result at the R. Premadasa Stadium has transformed what seemed like a complicated mathematical equation for the Men in Green into a straightforward -albeit challenging – path to the knockout stage.

Chasing a target of 160, England found themselves in early trouble at 2/2 before captain Harry Brook steadied the innings. Later, Will Jacks contributed a stable 32 off 18 deliveries, while Rehan Ahmed’s cameo of an unbeaten 19 off just seven balls sealed the chase with three balls to spare. The victory confirmed England’s position at the top of Group 2 with an unbeaten record and six points from their three Super 8 matches.

For New Zealand, the defeat meant they concluded their Super 8 campaign with three points from three matches, though they maintain a formidable net run rate of +1.390.

Following Friday’s result, the Group 2 points table presents a clear picture:

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Pakistan’s path to the semi-finals is now entirely within their control. They must defeat Sri Lanka in their final Super 8 match at the Pallekele International Cricket Stadium on Saturday. However, a mere victory will not suffice – the margin of victory is crucial.

With New Zealand boasting a superior net run rate compared to Pakistan, the Salman Agha-led side needs a commanding win to leapfrog the Black Caps for the second semi-final spot.

If Pakistan bats first

If Pakistan wins the toss and elects to bat, they need to win by a minimum margin of 64 runs to overhaul New Zealand’s NRR. The exact requirement varies slightly based on the total posted:

If Pakistan bowls first

In case Pakistan is asked to chase, they must achieve the target with exceptional haste:

The match against Sri Lanka effectively serves as a virtual knockout for Pakistan. If they fail to meet the required victory margin, New Zealand will advance to the semi-finals based on their superior net run rate.

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