Here’s how Sri Lanka can still qualify for Asia Cup 2025 Final even after losing to Pakistan

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Sri Lanka’s chances of qualifying for the Asia Cup 2025 Final have become extremely slim after their second consecutive defeat in the Super Four stage. The defending champions find themselves at the bottom of the table without any points and now only a complicated set of results can keep them alive in the tournament.

Sri Lanka’s 2025 Asia Cup campaign reached a crisis point when they were beaten by Pakistan in Abu Dhabi on September 19. Earlier, they had also stumbled against Bangladesh, leaving them with two defeats in two matches and a poor Net Run Rate of -0.590. With only one game left in the Super Four against India on September 26, Sri Lanka cannot afford another slip and remain dependent on other results to stay alive.

Currently, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh all have two points each, while Sri Lanka have none. For the 2022 champions to make a miraculous entry into the final, Bangladesh must beat both India and Pakistan in their remaining two fixtures. If that happens, all three teams will be tied at two points each alongside Sri Lanka, provided Asalanka’s men stun India in Dubai. At that stage, qualification will be decided by Net Run Rate, which means Sri Lanka must also thump India convincingly to recover from their present deficit.

On the other hand, if either India or Pakistan defeats Bangladesh, Sri Lanka will be eliminated even before taking the field for their last Super Four contest. This makes the equation extremely tricky, placing their fate firmly in Bangladesh’s hands.

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Sri Lanka’s failures in the Super Four have been marked by batting collapses and inconsistency at the top. Against Pakistan, Kamindu Mendis offered resistance with a half-century but his teammates failed to provide support, leaving Sri Lanka with a below-par 133. Their spinners Wanindu Hasaranga and Maheesh Theekshana gave them hope by reducing Pakistan to 80/5, but the bowlers could not finish the job as Salman Agha’s men held their nerve to secure the win.

As they prepare to face India, Sri Lanka must regroup quickly to restore pride, regardless of qualification chances. The defending champions have historically been giant-killers in Asia Cup history, known for pulling off unexpected victories under pressure. Beating India will not only keep their mathematical chances intact but also allow them to finish the tournament on a competitive note.

For fans and analysts, all eyes will now be on Bangladesh’s next two matches, which hold the key to Sri Lanka’s possible revival. If the Tigers manage a dream run and Sri Lanka knocks over India, the tournament could head towards one of the most thrilling Net Run Rate calculations in Asia Cup history. Until then, Sri Lanka remain on the brink, caught between fading hopes and the small window still open to defend their crown.

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